London Calling: Jacksonville Jaguars’ Overseas Triumph

London Calling: Jacksonville Jaguars’ Overseas Triumph

The Jacksonville Jaguars seem to have discovered a newfound stronghold in London, where their fortunes have undergone a revival. Impressively, they secured wins against the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills, rejuvenating their season and elevating their record to 3-2. Nevertheless, a challenge awaits as they must return to Jacksonville to face six more scheduled matches.

The Waning Significance of Home-Field Advantage

The Jaguars’ journey embodies a crucial aspect of the 2023 NFL season: the diminishing importance of home-field advantage. Their performance in Jacksonville has been lackluster, with a winless 0-2 record. In sharp contrast, their three away games have resulted in victorious outcomes, highlighting a shift in the NFL landscape.

This season has seen the notion of home-field advantage rapidly fading, evident as NFL teams tally more losses than wins after five weeks of competition.

Dominance of Road Teams

Road teams in the NFL have proven to be particularly dominant this season, amassing a 41-37 record. Even when we exclude the two London games, in which the Jaguars played both home and away roles, road teams maintain a commendable 40-36 record.

The last instance of NFL home teams ending a season with more losses than wins occurred in 2020, a peculiar year marked by empty or partially filled stadiums due to COVID-19. However, this was an exceptional circumstance. In 2019, home teams secured victories in just 52% of the games, marking the lowest percentage since 1972, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Although 2020 was an outlier, the winning percentage for home teams barely improved in 2021, standing at 51.1%. In 2022, it exhibited a momentary resurgence to 56.7%, but 2023 seems to herald a return to the previous norm.

Several factors, including more convenient travel arrangements, diminished crowds in modern, state-of-the-art stadiums, and officials adapting to the ongoing trend favoring home teams, contribute to the declining influence of home-field advantage this season.

Road Teams in the Betting Arena

In the realm of sports betting, road teams have enjoyed a distinct advantage due to point spreads for an extended period. Since 2004, road teams have maintained a winning record against the spread in 14 out of 19 seasons, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

Not surprisingly, road teams continue to thrive this season, with a notable 56.2% winning record. Road favorites have secured a dominant 58.6% success rate, while road underdogs stand at a respectable 54.6%. This exceptional performance prompts a reevaluation of the traditional value associated with home-field advantage. Historically, NFL teams were awarded roughly three points on the spread as a home-field advantage, but this number has gradually dwindled.

An example of the diminishing role of home-field advantage can be observed in the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers. Since relocating from San Diego, the Chargers have cultivated one of the NFL’s smallest fan bases, while the Cowboys boast one of the most extensive fan followings. The focus at SoFi Stadium isn’t on the fan count but rather on whether the Cowboys’ crowd will swell to 80% or more. Oddsmakers acknowledge the absence of a home-field edge for the Chargers, with the Cowboys emerging as a 2-point favorite at BetMGM.

While it’s still early in the season, and as weather conditions deteriorate, the performance of home teams may improve. A sample size of 76 games isn’t sufficient to establish a lasting trend, but the evidence thus far is compelling.

For decades, playing on the road has been considered a formidable challenge. However, this season, even as a season-ticket holder, the likelihood of witnessing your favorite team secure victory has dwindled to just below 50%.

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